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The US economy recovered in July after a contraction the previous month. China also posted positive quarterly growth, exceeding the 5% mark. Domestically, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut interest rates at its July Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, responding to easing inflation pressures.

Tariffs, rate cuts, and political missteps - August brings no shortage of headlines. Here’s our take on what it all means for SA’s economic outlook.

US non-farm payrolls increased slightly in May, with job gains continuing but at a slower pace than in April. The OECD forecasts a slowdown in global economic growth in 2025 and 2026, primarily due to weaker performance in certain countries. SA's headline Producer Price Index (PPI) declined in May, while Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) remained steady.

In May, the US and China reached an agreement to reduce the reciprocal tariffs previously imposed on Chinese goods. Meanwhile, the UK economy posted solid growth in Q1 2025, outperforming all other G7 nations during the same period. In a significant development, Moody’s became the third major credit rating agency – after S&P Global in 2011 and Fitch in 2023 – to downgrade the US’s credit……

Market volatility was exacerbated by on-again/off-again tariff announcements. The trade war sparked fears of a US recession amid slowing growth, weak consumer sentiment, and sticky inflation. Rapid changes in global trade dynamics caused tremendous confusion and unease among investors, weighing on global equity markets.

Inflation continues to moderate across key global markets, including the US, UK, Eurozone, South Africa, and China. In South Africa, inflation eased for the first time in five months, reaching its lowest level since June 2020. In contrast, Japan saw inflation rise in March, marking three consecutive years when headline inflation has been above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target.

Consumer inflation in the US increased slightly in February compared to January. In March, US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Chinese officials introduced a special plan to boost the economy and are considering various measures to stabilise the Chinese stock market. On the domestic front, the US issued an executive order to immediately suspend funding for the…

Global interest rates remained steady across major economies, including the US, UK, and South Africa, as central banks maintained their current policy stance. A key underlying factor for these central bank decisions is the tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump.

Much like preparing for the grueling Two Oceans Marathon, investing requires discipline, preparation, and the ability to endure uncertainty. The key is to trust the process, adapt to challenges, and remember that successful investing, like finishing a marathon, is about persistence and resilience.

For this year’s budget speech analysis, we turned to Melanie Stockigt, Portfolio Manager and Analyst at Laurium Capital, for her insights. The key takeaway? The budget reinforces fiscal discipline while aiming for pro-growth spending. Market reactions were mixed, with bonds and the rand seeing some volatility.