European summer does little to thaw it’s economic winter
European summer does little to thaw it’s economic winter
The question on everyone’s mind remains:
What about Greece and the rest of the Eurozone? How will things pan out there? In a recent fund manager presentation with Louis Stassen, senior fund manager from Coronation Fund Management, he addressed just this question.
Louis provided the following potential scenarios:
The Euro holds together This would keep a potential depression in the periphery, continued high unemployment and continue to create social unrest. It would also mean an extended period of uncertainty and risk Greece (and others) exit This would mean that those who leave would endure very high inflation, a possible run on their banks and very high interest rates.
But, having then reneged on their debt, and with a devalued currency, they would have a base from which to grow Germany exits A fairly recent suggestion.
The Euro would then devalue significantly and the new Deutsche Mark would appreciate sharply.
There would also be high inflation and significant interest rate differentials between the two regions would then emerge.
Full break-up This would result in massive disruptions to the global capital markets and underlying economies.
We can only hope that the second half of 2012 improves on a global front.
And if our local funds continue to perform like they have we will make ourselves and our clients only too happy.
Louis believes that the most likely scenario would be that that the Euro would hold together.
If for purely political reasons! No Politician wants to make an unpopular decision and that alone will probably keep the status quo.
So with all this seemingly bad news how do we navigate this difficult investment landscape?
We believe that the answer lies in the protection of the potential downside. Yes it is true that growth is vital and there are some exiting offshore opportunities, both in the developed and emerging markets but we also believe that in protecting capital during the difficult times, long term growth will be sustainable.
Octagon Financial is extremely proud of the performance of our local funds. Despite the challenging markets, the fund managers have managed to deliver above benchmark returns and our blended portfolios have exceeded their
targeted returns.
Please see below the Octagon Efficient Frontier, depicting the annualised returns, benchmarks, maximum equity exposure per fund and investment horizon. The pie graphs depict the asset allocation per fund.
Warning: Undefined array key "id" in /data/www/html/octagon-financial/wp-content/plugins/graviton-post-importer/uncode/partials/elements.php on line 523
Octagon Financial
Share Article
Latest News
March 2024 Economic Review
April 11, 2024
Read this article on the Graviton Perspectives website. Click here.
Monthly Market Highlights – March 2024
April 9, 2024
Read this article on the Graviton Perspectives website. Click here.
Fund selection: When to hold ‘em and when to fold ‘em
April 8, 2024
Read this article on the Graviton Perspectives website. Click here.
Pre-MPC Analysis: a Hawkish pause expected
March 27, 2024
Read this article on the Graviton Perspectives website. Click here.
February 2024 Economic Review
March 11, 2024
Read this article on the Graviton Perspectives website. Click here.
Hedge Funds 101: Unpacking the essentials for smart investors
March 8, 2024
Read this article on the Graviton Perspectives website. Click here.
Monthly Market Highlights – February 2024
March 7, 2024
Read this article on the Graviton Perspectives website. Click here.
Unpacking the Budget Speech 2024
February 22, 2024
Read this article on the Graviton Perspectives website. Click here.
Monthly Market Highlights – January 2024
February 14, 2024
Read this article on the Graviton Perspectives website. Click here.
January 2024 Economic Review
February 12, 2024
Read this article on the Graviton Perspectives website. Click here.