Events that moved the market Q4 2019

US unemployment benefits fall to the lowest level since 1969.

The South African Trade Activity Index is at its lowest level since inception of the survey in 2000. The previous lowest level for the Index was 32 in April 2009, just after the great financial crisis.

Tongaat Hulett’s share price plunges to its worst level since 1993, after announcing that headline earnings in the year to March will probably fall by at least 250%.

South Africa‘s economy expands by 1.4% in the final quarter of 2018, helped by growth in agriculture and manufacturing. This brings the total growth for 2018 to 0.8%.

More than two thirds of SA businesses surveyed are now dissatisfied with current conditions. Sentiment among retailers and builders fell the most.

Tropical cyclone Idai in Mozambique plunges South Africa into stage 4 load-shedding.

The Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the great financial crisis. A yield curve inversion is widely regarded as a potential sign of an impending recession and rate-cutting cycle.

Naspers announces that it will separately list its internet businesses, including Tencent, in Amsterdam. This should unlock value for investors.

US GDP expands at a 3.2% annualised rate, exceeding the forecast average of 2.3%.

The IEC declares the 2019 SA elections free and fair and the rand strengthens on the outcome: The ANC gains the national victory with a 57.51% majority vote. It also takes all provinces, except the Western Cape, where the DA stays in control.

The Trump administration blacklists Huawei, accusing the company of aiding Beijing in espionage.

SA's economy shrinks by 3.2% in the first quarter of 2019, the biggest contraction in a decade. Some of the reasons are weak consumer demand, load shedding and recurring falls in mining production.

Tongaat asks that its listings be suspended because of accounting irregularities. More than 5000 employees receive retrenchment notices.

Steinhoff posts a loss of €1.19bn (more than R19 billion) for the year ended September 2018.

Facebook announces a digital currency, Libra, that will allow its users to make financial transactions across the globe. US lawmakers raise privacy concerns.

Trump signs an executive order for additional sanctions against Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Foreign minister Javad Zarif, and eight Revolutionary Guard commanders.

MultiChoice, formerly part of Naspers, announces that up to 2194 employees may lose their jobs in a restructuring of its customer service model.

US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping reach an agreement at the G20 summit in Japan to continue trade talks.

Germany’s 10-year Bund yields are just off a historic low of minus 0.39%.

China's economy grows by 6.2% in the second quarter, the lowest figure since the early 1990s, and in line with forecasts.

The SA Reserve Bank cuts the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.5%, the first cut since March 2018. The prime interest rate will now be 10.0% p.a.

The Sacci monthly business confidence index (BCI) rises to 92.4 in September from a 34-year low of 89.1 in August.

The joint CEOs of Sasol resign on completion of an independent review of the company’s disastrous Lake Charles project. The share price lost 44% of its value over the past year.

South Africa’s unemployment rate stands at 29.1%. The country has 6.7 million people without jobs.

Eskom’s transmission unit will be hived off while remaining under the control of a state holding company, making it easier for private generators to supply the national grid.

In his 2019 mini-Budget statement, Minister Mboweni announces that talks have begun to find equity partners for SAA; SA is expected to grow by 0.5% in the current fiscal year; a revenue shortfall of R53bn is expected; and the main budget deficit is expected to widen to 5.9% of GDP. Wage freezes at certain levels of government are introduced.

Moody’s downgrades the outlook for its credit rating of the South African government from ‘stable’ to ‘negative’.

The S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the Dow hit record highs, after US officials indicated on 1 Nov that a trade deal with China could be signed during November.

The FNB/BER consumer confidence index falls to -7 in the third quarter from 5 in the previous three-month period. The steep decline mirrors the RMB/BER business confidence index, which sank to a 20-year low of 21 index points, from 28 in the second quarter.

President Ramaphosa confirms that government’s 2019 investment summit resulted in R363 billion being committed to South Africa. This is on top of the R300 billion in commitments secured during last year’s drive.

South African Airways kicks off a restructuring process that could lead to almost a fifth of its staff members losing their jobs. Unions respond with a strike demanding no job losses and an 8% wage increase.

The US Senate approves legislation to protect human rights in Hong Kong, widening the divide between the US and China.

SA consumer price inflation falls to 3.7%, the lowest level since 2011.

The South African Reserve Bank keeps the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% and lowers the growth forecast for SA for 2019 to 0.5%.

The SA economy contracts by 0.6% after growing by 3.1% in the second quarter of the year and shrinking by 3.2% in the first quarter.

The Ministry of Transport places state-owned Passenger Rail Agency South Africa (Prasa) under administration and dissolves the interim board.

Eskom implements stage 6 load shedding for the first time in history.

Tongaat Hulett is forced to write down nearly R12bn of equity, most of it originating from land expropriation in Zimbabwe and deferred tax assets not recognised by Zimbabwean law.

An interim trade deal between China and the US sends the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs.

Two senior managers at Eskom and two businessmen appear in court on charges of corruption, fraud and money laundering.

A majority of 124 MPs back Prime Minister Boris Johnson's plan for the UK to leave the EU on 31 January. The EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill also bans an extension of the transition period past 2020.

US unemployment benefits fall to the lowest level since 1969.

The South African Trade Activity Index is at its lowest level since inception of the survey in 2000. The previous lowest level for the Index was 32 in April 2009, just after the great financial crisis.

Tongaat Hulett’s share price plunges to its worst level since 1993, after announcing that headline earnings in the year to March will probably fall by at least 250%.

South Africa‘s economy expands by 1.4% in the final quarter of 2018, helped by growth in agriculture and manufacturing. This brings the total growth for 2018 to 0.8%.

More than two thirds of SA businesses surveyed are now dissatisfied with current conditions. Sentiment among retailers and builders fell the most.

Tropical cyclone Idai in Mozambique plunges South Africa into stage 4 load-shedding.

The Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the great financial crisis. A yield curve inversion is widely regarded as a potential sign of an impending recession and rate-cutting cycle.

Naspers announces that it will separately list its internet businesses, including Tencent, in Amsterdam. This should unlock value for investors.

US GDP expands at a 3.2% annualised rate, exceeding the forecast average of 2.3%.

The IEC declares the 2019 SA elections free and fair and the rand strengthens on the outcome: The ANC gains the national victory with a 57.51% majority vote. It also takes all provinces, except the Western Cape, where the DA stays in control.

The Trump administration blacklists Huawei, accusing the company of aiding Beijing in espionage.

SA's economy shrinks by 3.2% in the first quarter of 2019, the biggest contraction in a decade. Some of the reasons are weak consumer demand, load shedding and recurring falls in mining production.

Tongaat asks that its listings be suspended because of accounting irregularities. More than 5 000 employees receive retrenchment notices.

Steinhoff posts a loss of €1.19bn (more than R19 billion) for the year ended September 2018.

Facebook announces a digital currency, Libra, that will allow its users to make financial transactions across the globe. US lawmakers raise privacy concerns.

Trump signs an executive order for additional sanctions against Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Foreign minister Javad Zarif, and eight Revolutionary Guard commanders.

MultiChoice, formerly part of Naspers, announces that up to 2194 employees may lose their jobs in a restructuring of its customer service model.

US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping reach an agreement at the G20 summit in Japan to continue trade talks.

Germany’s 10-year Bund yields are just off a historic low of minus 0.39%.

China's economy grows by 6.2% in the second quarter, the lowest figure since the early 1990s, and in line with forecasts.

The SA Reserve Bank cuts the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.5%, the first cut since March 2018. The prime interest rate will now be 10.0% p.a.

The Sacci monthly business confidence index (BCI) rises to 92.4 in September from a 34-year low of 89.1 in August.

The joint CEOs of Sasol resign on completion of an independent review of the company’s disastrous Lake Charles project. The share price lost 44% of its value over the past year.

South Africa’s unemployment rate stands at 29.1 %. The country has 6.7 million people without jobs.

Eskom’s transmission unit will be hived off while remaining under the control of a state holding company, making it easier for private generators to supply the national grid.

In his 2019 mini-Budget statement, Minister Mboweni announces that talks have begun to find equity partners for SAA; SA is expected to grow by 0.5% in the current fiscal year; a revenue shortfall of R53bn is expected; and the main budget deficit is expected to widen to 5.9% of GDP. Wage freezes at certain levels of government are introduced.

Moody’s downgrades the outlook for its credit rating of the South African government from ‘stable’ to ‘negative’.

The S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the Dow hit record highs, after US officials indicated on 1 Nov that a trade deal with China could be signed during November.

The FNB/BER consumer confidence index falls to -7 in the third quarter from 5 in the previous three-month period. The steep decline mirrors the RMB/BER business confidence index, which sank to a 20-year low of 21 index points, from 28 in the second quarter.

President Ramaphosa confirms that government’s 2019 investment summit resulted in R363 billion being committed to South Africa. This is on top of the R300 billion in commitments secured during last year’s drive.

South African Airways kicks off a restructuring process that could lead to almost a fifth of its staff members losing their jobs. Unions respond with a strike demanding no job losses and an 8% wage increase.

The US Senate approves legislation to protect human rights in Hong Kong, widening the divide between the US and China.

SA consumer price inflation falls to 3.7%, the lowest level since 2011.

The South African Reserve Bank keeps the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% and lowers the growth forecast for SA for 2019 to 0.5%.

The SA economy contracts by 0.6% after growing by 3.1% in the second quarter of the year and shrinking by 3.2% in the first quarter.

The Ministry of Transport places state-owned Passenger Rail Agency South Africa (Prasa) under administration and dissolves the interim board.

Eskom implements stage 6 load shedding for the first time in history.

Tongaat Hulett is forced to write down nearly R12bn of equity, most of it originating from land expropriation in Zimbabwe and deferred tax assets not recognised by Zimbabwean law.

An interim trade deal between China and the US sends the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs.

Two senior managers at Eskom and two businessmen appear in court on charges of corruption, fraud and money laundering.

A majority of 124 MPs back Prime Minister Boris Johnson's plan for the UK to leave the EU on 31 January. The EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill also bans an extension of the transition period past 2020.